COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Exposure quantification based on ventilation, infection prevalence, group characteristics, and behavior.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT) allows users to compare respiratory relative risk to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for various scenarios, providing understanding of how combinations of protective measures affect risk. CEAT incorporates mechanistic, stochastic, and epidemiological factors including the (i) emission rate of virus, (ii) viral aerosol degradation and removal, (iii) duration of activity/exposure, (iv) inhalation rates, (v) ventilation rates (indoors/outdoors), (vi) volume of indoor space, (vii) filtration, (viii) mask use and effectiveness, (ix) distance between people (taking into account both near-field and far-field effects of proximity), (x) group size, (xi) current infection rates by variant, (xii) prevalence of infection and immunity in the community, (xiii) vaccination rates, and (xiv) implementation of COVID-19 testing procedures. CEAT applied to published studies of COVID-19 transmission events demonstrates the model's accuracy. We also show how health and safety professionals at NASA Ames Research Center used CEAT to manage potential risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 exposures.

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent dispersion of evaporative aerosol clouds produced by an intense expiratory event.

Airborne particles are a major route for transmission of COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases. When a person talks, sings, coughs, or sneezes, nasal and throat secretions are spewed into the air. After a short initial fragmentation stage, the expelled material is mostly composed of spherical particles of different sizes. While the dynamics of the largest droplets are dominated by gravitational effects, the smaller aerosol particles, mostly transported by means of hydrodynamic drag, form clouds that can remain afloat for long times. In subsaturated air environments, the dependence of pathogen-laden particle dispersion on their size is complicated due to evaporation of the aqueous fraction. Particle dynamics can significantly change when ambient conditions favor rapid evaporation rates that result in a transition from buoyancy-to-drag dominated dispersion regimes. To investigate the effect of particle size and evaporation on pathogen-laden cloud evolution, a direct numerical simulation of a mild cough was coupled with an evaporative Lagrangian particle advection model. The results suggest that while the dispersion of cough particles in the tails of the size distribution are unlikely to be disrupted by evaporative effects, preferential aerosol diameters (30-40 µm) may exhibit significant increases in the residence time and horizontal range under typical ambient conditions. Using estimations of the viral concentration in the spewed fluid and the number of ejected particles in a typical respiratory event, we obtained a map of viral load per volume of air at the end of the cough and the number of virus copies per inhalation in the emitter vicinity.

Direct numerical simulation of the turbulent flow generated during a violent expiratory event.

A main route for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) transmission involves airborne droplets and aerosols generated when a person talks, coughs, or sneezes. The residence time and spatial extent of these virus-laden aerosols are mainly controlled by their size and the ability of the background flow to disperse them. Therefore, a better understanding of the role played by the flow driven by respiratory events is key in estimating the ability of pathogen-laden particles to spread the infection. Here, we numerically investigate the hydrodynamics produced by a violent expiratory event resembling a mild cough. Coughs can be split into an initial jet stage during which air is expelled through mouth and a dissipative phase over which turbulence intensity decays as the puff penetrates the environment. Time-varying exhaled velocity and buoyancy due to temperature differences between the cough and the ambient air affect the overall flow dynamics. The direct numerical simulation (DNS) of an idealized isolated cough is used to characterize the jet/puff dynamics using the trajectory of the leading turbulent vortex ring and extract its topology by fitting an ellipsoid to the exhaled fluid contour. The three-dimensional structure of the simulated cough shows that the assumption of a spheroidal puff front fails to capture the observed ellipsoidal shape. Numerical results suggest that, although analytical models provide reasonable estimates of the distance traveled by the puff, trajectory predictions exhibit larger deviations from the DNS. The fully resolved hydrodynamics presented here can be used to inform new analytical models, leading to improved prediction of cough-induced pathogen-laden aerosol dispersion.